Peyton Manning and Alex Smith both have the distinction of
being former No. 1 overall draft picks, but the careers of the two quarterbacks
couldn't have gone any more differently up to this point.
Smith will have a long-awaited chance to alter his fallen-star status when the
San Francisco 49ers signal-caller returns to a starting role for this Sunday's
showdown with Manning and the undefeated Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil
Stadium.
Things haven't quite turned out as planned for Smith ever since the 49ers
selected the University of Utah star with the top choice of the 2005 draft.
After battling through injuries and struggling to adjust to both the faster-
paced world of the NFL and his team's constant shuffling of offensive
coordinators over his first three pro seasons, the 25-year-old missed all of
2008 due to shoulder surgery and lost out to journeyman Shaun Hill in a
training-camp battle to be San Francisco's field general this summer.
Hill's production has dropped off mightily after a solid start to the year,
however, and he gave way to Smith following a very ineffective first half of
last Sunday's game with the Houston Texans. In his first regular-season action
since November of 2007, Smith put up 206 yards and tossed three touchdowns to
tight end Vernon Davis in just two quarters of work as the Niners' nearly
overcame a 21-point halftime deficit in a 24-21 loss.
That impressive performance resonated with head coach Mike Singletary, who
promptly named Smith the starter for this weekend's test on Monday. The fiery
Hall of Fame former linebacker is keeping his fingers crossed that the one-
time can't-miss prospect can breathe some life into an offense that ranks 29th
out of the NFL's 32 teams in total yards.
Manning has had far fewer tribulations in a stellar 12-year career that will
almost assuredly put the recognizable quarterback alongside Singletary in
Canton one day. And judging by his accomplishments of this season, the 33-
year-old three-time league MVP seems to be getting better with age.
He ripped off five straight games of 300 passing yards or more to begin the
2009 campaign, then tossed three touchdown strikes in a 235-yard effort that
helped the powerhouse Colts abuse the woeful St. Louis Rams by a 42-6 score
this past Sunday at the Edward Jones Dome. The win was the 15th in a row
dating back to last season for 6-0 Indianapolis, one of only three remaining
teams boasting an unblemished mark this year.
Through the first six games, Manning is completing a career-best 72.6 percent
of his attempts and has thrown 15 touchdown passes to top the NFL with a 114.5
quarterback rating.
The 49ers come in reeling, having dropped three of four tilts since kicking
off the season with encouraging victories over fellow NFC West members Arizona
and Seattle. San Francisco, which has not reached the postseason since 2002,
currently sits a game back of the defending conference champion Cardinals for
first place in the division.
SERIES HISTORY
Indianapolis holds a 23-18 edge in its all-time series with San Francisco, and
snapped a two-game skid in the series with a 28-3 win at Candlestick Park in
2005. The 49ers won the previous meeting, taking a 40-21 decision at the RCA
Dome in 2001. The Colts, who haven't posted a two-game winning streak over San
Francisco since 1968, last defeated the Niners at home in 1995.
The Colts' Jim Caldwell and Singletary will be meeting each other, as well as
their counterpart's respective teams, for the first time as head coaches.
WHEN THE 49ERS HAVE THE BALL
Although all eyes will be on Smith (206 passing yards, 3 TD, 1 INT), expect
San Francisco to attempt to establish a consistent ground game centered around
top back Frank Gore (273 rushing yards, 10 receptions, 4 total TD) with the
intent of both alleviating the burden on the sparingly-used quarterback and
keeping Manning and the dangerous Indianapolis offense off the field. Such a
task may be easier said than done for the Niners, however, since the team has
surpassed 100 yards rushing only one time this year behind a shaky front line
that lost right tackle Tony Pashos to a season-ending shoulder fracture in
last week's setback. Gore returned from a two-game absence due to an ankle
sprain against the Texans, but could generate only 32 yards on 13 carries.
Smith quickly establish an excellent rapport with leading receiver Davis (29
receptions, 6 TD), a physical marvel who's finally meeting the expectations of
being the sixth overall pick in the 2006 draft. Rookie wideout Michael
Crabtree added five catches for 56 yards in the Houston game, his ballyhooed
NFL debut after sitting out the season's first five tests because of a
contract dispute.
Smith figures to face a stern challenge from a Colts defense that's yielding a
league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt and has surrendered only two touchdowns
through the air in the club's six victories. Opposing quarterbacks have had to
unload the ball quickly against the tremendous pass-rushing duo of ends Dwight
Freeney (13 tackles, 7 sacks) and Robert Mathis (20 tackles, 4.5 sacks), with
the former having notched at least one sack in every game this season and the
latter forcing three fumbles thus far on the year. Teams have had greater
success running the ball on Indianapolis, which stands just 19th overall
versus the run (111.8 ypg) and gave up 134 yards on 23 attempts to St. Louis
star Steven Jackson a week ago. That ranking could improve now that former NFL
Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders is finally healthy. The difference-
making strong safety, who's been recovering from offseason knee surgery,
played for the first time in 2009 against the Rams and was used in a rotation
with Melvin Bullitt (26 tackles) and top tackler Antoine Bethea (42 tackles, 2
INT).
WHEN THE COLTS HAVE THE BALL
The Indianapolis offense has been operating at maximum efficiency throughout
this 2009 campaign, as the Colts are averaging a shade under 30 points per game
and have converted better than 53 percent of their third-down chances in
addition to topping the NFL in passing yards (310.8 ypg). Manning (1880 passing
yards, 15 TD, 4 INT) has been playing at a level even higher than his usual
lofty standards, while All-Pro wide receiver Reggie Wayne (39 receptions, 542
yards, 5 TD) and tight end Dallas Clark (38 receptions, 485 yards, 3 TD) are
among the elite at their respective positions as well. Wayne, who left with a
groin strain in last Sunday's blowout but isn't expected to miss this weekend's
test, has a touchdown catch in four consecutive games, while rookie slotman
Austin Collie (24 receptions, 4 TD) has hauled in four scoring deliveries from
Manning over Indy's past three outings. With regular starter Anthony Gonzalez
likely to sit out another week to recover from a knee sprain, Collie should
hold down a key role in the passing game once again. Rookie running back Donald
Brown (212 rushing yards, 2 TD, 7 receptions) is also expected to miss after
suffering a shoulder contusion against the Rams, meaning the steady Joseph
Addai (274 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 5 total TD) will be taking on the bulk
of the ball-carrying duties. He's averaging a pedestrian 3.3 yards per rush,
however, for a Colts attack that ranks only 27th in rushing offense (91.7 ypg).
Addai could find the going tough on Sunday, considering the 49ers are allowing
a mere 3.3 yards per rush attempt and have not let an opposing back over the
100-yard mark this season. A sturdy front seven is headlined by dynamic inside
linebacker Patrick Willis (59 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 2 INT), and that group
should be bolstered by the slated return of hard-hitting strong safety Michael
Lewis (30 tackles) from a concussion that rendered him inactive against
Houston. Stopping the pass has been more of a chore for San Francisco, which
allowed Atlanta's Matt Ryan to compile a career-best 329 yards in a lopsided
loss to the Falcons two weeks back and permitted 246 net passing yards and two
touchdowns to the Texans last time out. It's imperative that outside
linebackers Manny Lawson (32 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Parys Haralson (14
tackles, 1 sack) apply effective pressure to Manning, but that's no easy feat.
The Colts have given up just two sacks on the season and zero over the last
four games.
FANTASY FOCUS
In the most glaring overstatement of the obvious in this preview, Manning
should be in all fantasy lineups under any circumstances. Wayne owners should
monitor his progress in the days leading up to Sunday's game, but if the stud
wide receiver practices without any major restrictions, he's a no-brainer
start as well. This contest features two of the premier tight ends this season
in Indianapolis' Clark and San Francisco's Davis, both of whom need to be used
this week. Without the threat of having touches taken away by the ailing
Brown, Addai becomes an attractive choice at the running back position, while
the 49ers will be feeding the ball heavily to Gore. Smith is now worth picking
up off the waiver wire, but hold off on playing the resurgent quarterback
right now. Crabtree's solid showing in his debut bodes very well for the
rookie's chances of making an impact this season, and one could do worse that
inserting the young wideout as a bye-week fill-in. With the 49ers struggling
to move the ball and about to be led by a guy who's played two quarters of
real football in nearly a two-year span, the Indianapolis defense becomes a
strong choice.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Smith's relief effort was certainly an encouraging sign for the 49ers, and
with Davis establishing himself as a go-to guy and Crabtree and Gore back in
the fold, there's finally some talent in place for the team to break out of
its offensive funk. Problem is, San Francisco's going to have to win a
shootout in order to take down an Indianapolis squad that's firing on all
cylinders right now, and the Niners just simply aren't at that stage of
development as of yet. Look for the formula to be the same for the Colts as it
was in many of their 15 straight victories, with Manning and the offense
roaring out to an early lead that will allow Freeney and the defense to pin
its ears back and attack.
Sports Network Predicted Outcome: Colts 34, 49ers 17
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